I'm sure most of you've noticed the latest news, but it's worth going over I think. My opinion hasn't changed since CVA was disbanded. If it is legitimate, which this one almost certainly is, then it sticks, and no one is going to dispute that.
But the point of contention I'm going to take issue with is the swath of people that seem to have some sort of inclination that UK deserved to die. Why is that? Sure, they screwed up, and they're paying for that mistake, but deserved it? That's just being petty. UK might've had some dicks, but so does every corp and alliance.
As for Hydra, for the longest time I heard rumblings about Hydra. Their stated targets were the only ones I was sure they weren't hitting. I had no idea they'd go this far, but it's an interesting strategy. It's also one that absolutely ensures that CVA will fail to take back Provi. It also indicates that Hydra is uninterested in keeping any Provi space for the long term.
Why would I say that? With UK gone, CVA is on the cusp of taking back provi, right? Not even close. Old Providence was a collection of holder alliances... not just CVA. UK alone could beat CVA in a fight(or at least be on even footing). It was the inclusion of Libertas Fidelitas, Paxton Federation, Aegis Militia, VVA, and Cold Steel Alliance(among others) that made Providence untakable by UK alone.
The only two of those Alliances still in serious operation are VVA and Cold Steel, and they've taken space elsewhere. CVA isn't completely alone, but it's been cut off from everyone it once counted on.
In another vein, the combined numbers of New Providence is on the order of 6000 people. Combined, it's a serious obstacle to anyone wanting to take space in Providence.
So what about Hydra?
They are not serious about taking space in Providence. They're in it for the fun of sov warfare. I think they'll find it's not fun at all, but I could be wrong. In the last month they've added about a thousand people to their alliance. This has been a lead up to an invasion, or so the common intelligence will say.
I say their UK trick has proven they don't have the heart for real sov warfare, and they took the easy way to having stations. They've screwed CVA in the public perception(more than they have already), and the manner in which they did it has mobilized forces against them that otherwise wouldn't've gotten involved in Providence.
Not to say they made a mistake. They wanted that. They want to fight outnumbered, get in their victories and move on later. This "invasion" is transitory. They'll get bored of it at some point, and find other shinies to play with. If CVA is counting on them in the long term, it's a serious mistake. But in the short term, in Hydra, you've got an alliance of people still smaller than Circle of Two(who've absorbed a large number of former UK corps) where maybe 2-5% are among the best PvPers in EVE. And the rest... well...
So what happens next? CVA loses all their systems, and UK space gets taken by Circle of Two, or whatever new Alliance pops up to replace UK.
In the long term that is.
In the short term? We may have a fight on our hands.
I'm going to post tomorrow about the shitty mechanics that made this possible, but for now, I'll leave it alone.